The Science of Strategic Thinking: How Great Founders Make Better Decisions

I’ve been mulling over Warren Buffett’s approach to decision-making lately. He once said:

“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think.”

This got me thinking about my own process.

Am I taking enough time to think?

Honestly, probably not.

So, I decided to start thinking about my thinking (psychologists call this metacognition).

Here are 5 new views on thinking that I’m bringing to my business:

1. Our brains have two modes of thinking

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate, talks about System 1 (fast, intuitive) and System 2 (slow, deliberative) thinking. As entrepreneurs, we often default to System 1. It’s quick, but it’s prone to biases.

I asked Claude to help me engage my System 2 thinking:

• What are the long-term implications of my current business strategy? • How might my competitors respond to my next product launch? • What assumptions am I making that could be wrong?

2. Reflection boosts performance

A Harvard study found that employees who reflected for 15 minutes at the end of the day performed 23% better after 10 days.

I’ve started a daily reflection routine:

• What went well today? • What could I have done better? • What did I learn?

3. “What if?” thinking sharpens problem-solving

Researchers call this “counterfactual thinking.” It’s about imagining alternative outcomes.

I use prompts like:

• What if our biggest competitor went out of business tomorrow? • What if our main product suddenly became obsolete? • What if we had unlimited resources?

4. Mindfulness improves decision-making

A study in Psychological Science found that just 15 minutes of mindfulness meditation can help make more rational decisions.

I’ve incorporated a short meditation into my morning routine. It’s not easy (my mind wanders a lot), but I’m sticking with it.

5. Diverse perspectives lead to better decisions

Research shows diverse groups make better decisions. I don’t have a diverse team (yet), so I use AI to simulate different viewpoints:

• How would a risk-averse CFO view this decision?
• What would an aggressive growth-focused CEO do?
• How might a customer-obsessed product manager approach this?

By thinking more about my thinking, I’m less reactive and more proactive.

It’s not always easy to pause and think deeply, especially when there’s pressure to act quickly.

But I’m finding that this approach is helping me navigate complex business challenges more effectively.

Buffett was onto something.

Taking time to think isn’t a luxury — it’s a necessity for any entrepreneur who wants to build a sustainable, successful business.

To force myself to take more time to think and reflect on my business, I created a 3-day Think Retreat for myself.

It’s 3 days of thought exercises that I copy and paste into Claude.ai.

The thought exercises are meticulously crafted based on hours and hours of combing through psychology research, mental models, and perspectives from successful entrepreneurs.

If you want to go through the Think Retreat, you can get the thought exercises for free here.